ABSTRACT
Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) dates back to December 2019 in China. Iran has been among the most prone countries to the virus. The aim of this study was to report demographics, clinical data, and their association with death and CFR. Methods: This observational cohort study was performed from 20th March 2020 to 18th March 2021 in three tertiary educational hospitals in Tehran, Iran. All patients were admitted based on the WHO, CDC, and Iran's National Guidelines. Their information was recorded in their medical files. Multivariable analysis was performed to assess demographics, clinical profile, outcomes of disease, and finding the predictors of death due to COVID-19. Results: Of all 5318 participants, the median age was 60.0 years, and 57.2% of patients were male. The most significant comorbidities were hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Cough, dyspnea, and fever were the most dominant symptoms. Results showed that ICU admission, elderly age, decreased consciousness, low BMI, HTN, IHD, CVA, dialysis, intubation, Alzheimer disease, blood injection, injection of platelets or FFP, and high number of comorbidities were associated with a higher risk of death related to COVID-19. The trend of CFR was increasing (WPC: 1.86) during weeks 25 to 51. Conclusions: Accurate detection of predictors of poor outcomes helps healthcare providers in stratifying patients, based on their risk factors and healthcare requirements to improve their survival chance.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hypertension , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Female , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Iran/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The actual impact of the pandemic on COVID-19 specific mortality is still unclear due to the variability in access to diagnostic tools. This study aimed to estimate the excess all-cause mortality in Iran until September 2021 based on the national death statistics. RESULTS: The autoregressive integrated moving average was used to predict seasonal all-cause death in Iran (R-squared = 0.45). We observed a 38.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.7%-40.1%) rise in the all-cause mortality from 22 June 2020 to 21 June 2021. The excess all-cause mortality per 100,000 population were 178.86 (95% CI 137.2-220.5, M:F ratio = 1.3) with 49.1% of these excess deaths due to COVID-19. Comparison of spring 2019 and spring 2021 revealed that the highest percent increase in mortality was among men aged 65-69 years old (77%) and women aged 60-64 years old (86.8%). Moreover, the excess mortality among 31 provinces of Iran ranged from 109.7 (Hormozgan) to 273.2 (East-Azerbaijan) per 100,000 population. In conclusion, there was a significant rise in all-cause mortality during the pandemic. Since COVID-19 fatality explains about half of this rise, the increase in other causes of death and underestimation in reported data should be concerned by further studies.